央行大礼包来袭，长债利率为何上演“过山车”？

Core Viewpoint - The central bank's announcement of a structural interest rate cut of 0.25 percentage points and signals of potential further monetary easing have created mixed reactions in the bond market, with long-term bond yields experiencing volatility despite the positive news [1][4]. Group 1: Monetary Policy Actions - The central bank has introduced a package of policies, including a 0.25 percentage point reduction in various structural monetary policy tools and a reduction in the minimum down payment ratio for commercial housing loans to 30% [4]. - The average statutory deposit reserve ratio for financial institutions is currently 6.3%, indicating room for further reserve requirement cuts [4]. - The central bank emphasized that there is still space for both reserve requirement and interest rate cuts this year, which aligns with market expectations [2][4]. Group 2: Bond Market Reactions - Following the central bank's announcement, the yields on long-term bonds initially fell but then rose again, indicating a lack of strong bullish sentiment in the market [2][3]. - The 10-year government bond yield dropped from around 1.85% to 1.835% before rising back to 1.8555%, while the 30-year bond yield fluctuated similarly [2]. - The bond futures market also showed significant volatility, with most contracts closing higher, although the 30-year contract saw a slight decline [3]. Group 3: Market Dynamics and Expectations - Since the beginning of the year, long-term bond yields have continued a downward trend, with the 10-year bond yield approaching 1.9% and the 30-year bond yield exceeding 2.3% [3]. - Analysts suggest that the bond market is likely to remain volatile in the short term due to mixed signals regarding macroeconomic policy and a lack of clear bullish factors [3][4]. - The central bank's approach to bond buying is seen as a means to maintain liquidity and support the issuance of government bonds, with a focus on balancing monetary and fiscal policies [6][7]. Group 4: Government Bond Issuance - In 2025, the government issued 16 trillion yuan in bonds, with a net increase of 6.6 trillion yuan, resulting in a year-end balance of approximately 40 trillion yuan [6]. - The central bank's bond buying operations are intended to ensure that government bonds are issued at reasonable costs while enhancing market liquidity [7]. - The central bank's bond buying strategy is also aimed at stabilizing the yield curve and preventing excessive market fluctuations [7].