2025年12月国内氧化铝行业亏损面扩大

Core Viewpoint - The domestic alumina industry is experiencing increased losses due to a decline in spot prices that outpaces the decrease in production costs, leading to an average loss of 21 yuan per ton in December 2025 [1][2]. Cost and Price Analysis - The weighted average total cost of alumina in December 2025 is projected to be 2797 yuan per ton, a decrease of 73 yuan month-on-month and 297 yuan year-on-year [1]. - The spot price of alumina is expected to drop to 2776 yuan per ton, reflecting a month-on-month decline of 93 yuan or 3.2% [1]. - The average loss per ton in the alumina industry has increased by 20 yuan compared to the previous month [1]. Production Capacity and Operational Status - The domestic alumina production capacity in December 2025 is 96.19 million tons per year, with an operating rate of 83.8%, which is a decrease of 0.9 percentage points month-on-month [1]. - Currently, 55% of domestic alumina production capacity is operating at a loss, with high-cost capacity losses exceeding 200 yuan per ton [2]. Raw Material Cost Trends - In December, the prices of the three main raw materials for alumina production showed a downward trend, contributing to a reduction in production costs [1]. - The cost of domestic and imported bauxite has decreased slightly due to the ongoing decline in alumina prices, resulting in a reduction of 4 yuan per ton in mining costs [1]. - The price of caustic soda has also decreased by 18 yuan per ton due to sufficient supply and the impact of lower alumina prices [1]. - The energy cost for alumina production has been reduced by 43 yuan per ton, driven by weak demand and ample supply in the thermal coal market [1].