Gas Turbine Supply Chain Bottlenecks Could Reshape the Generation Mix in 2030 and Beyond

Supply Chain Challenges - The gas turbine industry is experiencing significant supply chain challenges, with backlogs extending years into the future and utilities struggling to secure dispatchable capacity [1] - Rotor forgings and hot-section blades are identified as primary bottlenecks, constrained by limited suppliers and complex manufacturing processes [1] - Some large frame turbines have been shipped without rotors or blades, with installation occurring later to maintain construction schedules [1] Vendor Qualification Issues - Qualifying new vendors is a lengthy process, heavily dependent on the original equipment manufacturer (OEM), supplier, and specific component [2] - Large forgings present particular challenges due to a limited number of global suppliers, many of whom serve multiple OEMs [2] - The qualification process for advanced machines requiring single-crystal blades or exotic materials is even more complex [2] Demand Drivers - Current demand for gas turbines is driven by multiple factors, including near-term needs from data centers and limited dispatchable power options due to increasing non-dispatchable resources on the grid [3] - New coal generation is no longer a viable option for most utilities, while natural gas supplies are more abundant, providing stability for gas-fired generation investment [3] - Data centers are driving acute short-term demand for dispatchable power, competing directly with utilities for small- and mid-sized turbines in the 30 MW to 100 MW range [3]