日元持续贬值！日本两大在野党联手对抗高市

Core Viewpoint - The Japanese Prime Minister, Fumio Kishida, is attempting to consolidate power through an early election, a strategy that may be riskier than anticipated due to political uncertainties and economic pressures [1][4]. Currency and Economic Impact - The Japanese yen fell to 159.45 against the US dollar on January 14, marking the lowest point since July 2024, with subsequent warnings from Finance Minister Shunichi Suzuki aimed at slowing the yen's depreciation [1][6]. - As of January 15, the yen was trading around 158.55, with hedge funds betting on a potential drop to 165 before any government intervention [2][6]. - Despite the Bank of Japan raising interest rates to the highest level since 1995, the yen continues to weaken, with predictions that it could fall to 160 or lower by the end of 2026 due to high US-Japan interest rate differentials and capital outflows [6][7]. Political Landscape - The early election announcement has altered Japan's political landscape, with the largest opposition party, the Constitutional Democratic Party, forming a new alliance with the Komeito party to challenge Kishida's government [5][6]. - Kishida's government, which currently holds a slim majority in the House of Representatives, faces pressure to secure support from opposition parties to pass the 2026 fiscal budget [3][5]. - Public sentiment is shifting, with 58% of respondents expressing concern over the economic impact of deteriorating Japan-China relations, indicating rising dissatisfaction with Kishida's administration [4][5]. Market Reactions and Predictions - Investors are anticipating that if Kishida's party secures a stable majority, expansionary policies will continue, potentially exacerbating the yen's depreciation and complicating the Bank of Japan's goals for price stability [7]. - The Deutsche Bank report suggests that failure to achieve a majority could lead to market sell-offs and a flight to safety, resulting in a stronger yen [7].