澳元走势深 澳洲联储政等待方向催化

Core Viewpoint - The Australian dollar (AUD) is currently in a phase of oscillation against major currencies, influenced by commodity prices, the Reserve Bank of Australia's (RBA) policy direction, and expectations of Chinese demand [1] Group 1: Economic Factors - The Australian economy is experiencing a moderate recovery with stable private demand and a robust labor market, but growth is slowing, the housing market is cooling, and inflation remains above target despite a decline [1] - As a resource-exporting country, the AUD's commodity currency nature ties it closely to core commodity prices, with Chinese demand expectations and global commodity fluctuations directly impacting exports [1] Group 2: Monetary Policy and Market Sentiment - The core driver for the AUD is the divergence in RBA policy, with the governor signaling a potential resumption of interest rate hikes due to concerns over uncontrolled inflation after several rounds of rate cuts [1] - Market speculation regarding the RBA's policy direction in the first half of the year is intense, with uncertainty being a key variable affecting the AUD [1] Group 3: Technical Analysis - The AUD is currently in a balanced oscillation range, with technical signals being ambiguous; strong support is formed by moving averages and previous lower bounds, while resistance is created by prior highs and psychological levels [2] - Indicators show a neutral position with no overbought or oversold conditions, and the overall trend is still developing, with potential for upward movement if resistance is broken [2] Group 4: Future Outlook - Institutions predict that the AUD will primarily oscillate in 2026, closely tied to RBA policy, commodity trends, and Chinese demand [2] - Key upcoming data to watch includes U.S. data affecting the dollar and Australian quarterly inflation data, which will directly influence policy expectations and provide direction for the AUD [2]