XHW(SH:603888) Xin Hua She·2026-01-15 13:52Core Viewpoint - The new U.S. government has intensified political polarization and governance disorder, prioritizing "America First" over international norms, leading to global instability and uncertainty [2][3]. Foreign Policy - The U.S. government has adopted extreme unilateralism and alliance restructuring, withdrawing from international agreements like the Paris Accord and the WHO, resulting in fragmented global governance [2][3]. - The U.S. is implementing "Monroe Doctrine 2.0," threatening Latin American countries with military intervention while attempting to undermine China-Russia cooperation [3][4]. - The U.S. is pushing for "de-globalization" and "friend-shoring," causing disruptions in global supply chains and increasing logistics and production costs, which ultimately burden American consumers [3][4]. - The new national security strategy emphasizes a transactional approach to alliances, requiring allies to share defense responsibilities and aligning them with U.S. economic and security interests [4][5]. Economic Policy - The U.S. government has enacted significant tax cuts and expanded oil and gas production, projected to increase the deficit by $3.3 trillion over the next decade [3][4]. - Tariff policies have created high uncertainty, leading to negative impacts on global supply chains and market volatility [4][5]. Military Strategy - The U.S. military strategy is characterized by a withdrawal from regions like the Middle East and Europe, focusing resources on the Western Hemisphere and the Indo-Pacific, which may exacerbate local tensions [3][4]. Domestic Policy - The government has initiated drastic administrative reforms, including significant layoffs and budget cuts in various federal agencies, leading to a historic government shutdown and declining public trust [8][9]. - Immigration policies have become more extreme, resulting in the largest-scale deportations in U.S. history, which may negatively impact labor supply and GDP [8][9]. - Social and educational policies have intensified divisions between "red" and "blue" states, exacerbating cultural conflicts [9][10]. Overall Governance Characteristics - The governance style of the U.S. government is described as "bulldozer governance," marked by extreme unilateralism, strong administrative control, economic bullying, strategic contraction, and populist governance [12][13]. - The government acknowledges the end of the unipolar era and is shifting towards a new isolationist realism, focusing on maintaining dominance in the Western Hemisphere and the Indo-Pacific [13][14]. Future Policy Directions - In 2026, the U.S. is expected to prioritize national security in domestic policies, emphasizing "Western Hemisphere first" and using economic tools as leverage in trade negotiations [14][15]. - The government aims to control resources and political security in the Western Hemisphere, potentially leading to increased tensions with regional countries [15][16].