Xin Lang Cai Jing·2026-01-15 14:09Core Viewpoint - The photovoltaic industry is facing a critical turning point in 2026, with major companies like JA Solar, JinkoSolar, and Trina Solar forecasting significant losses for 2025, compounded by the cancellation of export tax rebates that previously supported their profits and operational cash flow [1][11]. Group 1: Financial Impact - The cancellation of export tax rebates is expected to severely impact cash flow for photovoltaic companies, which had relied on these rebates as a stable source of income [2][12]. - In the first three quarters of 2025, the total tax refunds for the four leading module manufacturers approached 10 billion yuan, while the top ten companies received over 20 billion yuan in tax refunds for the 2024 fiscal year [1][12]. - The sudden loss of this crucial cash flow source is likened to cutting off an external lifeline during a time of industry "blood loss," forcing companies to rely more on their operational cash generation capabilities [2][12]. Group 2: Cash Flow Analysis - A clear differentiation in cash flow status among photovoltaic companies has emerged, with some companies struggling significantly as the industry faces a downturn [3][13]. - The cash flow rankings of listed photovoltaic companies over the past five years show that Tongwei Co. leads with a total cash generation of 860 million yuan, while companies like LONGi Green Energy and Aiko Solar are also notable [4][14]. - The abrupt policy change regarding export tax rebates has had the most severe impact on companies with already thin profit margins, necessitating a restructuring of financial management strategies [4][14]. Group 3: Market Dynamics - In an effort to capitalize on the last window of opportunity, major module manufacturers are stockpiling inventory while also clearing existing stock, leading to market chaos with contract breaches and price hikes becoming common [5][15]. - Current market prices for photovoltaic modules show fluctuations, with companies like JinkoSolar and Trina Solar adjusting their prices upward, indicating a volatile market environment [7][17]. - Companies are urged to maintain their reputations while seizing opportunities for recovery, emphasizing the importance of balancing profit-seeking with brand integrity [7][17]. Group 4: Strategic Responses - Leading companies are adopting various strategies to survive the cash flow challenges, such as technological innovation and product differentiation [9][19]. - LONGi and Aiko are promoting BC battery technology to achieve higher premiums in overseas markets, while JA Solar is implementing a "three-pole management system" to reduce production costs [9][19]. - Trina Solar is collaborating with financial institutions to utilize accounts receivable for cash flow supplementation, and JinkoSolar is launching new TOPCon products to enhance market competitiveness [9][19].