关注！农药原药退税取消背后释放了哪些信号

Core Viewpoint - The recent cancellation of certain pesticide export tax rebates signals a shift in China's agricultural chemical industry towards high-quality development, moving away from low-price competition based on subsidies [1][4]. Group 1: Policy Impact on Pesticide Industry - The policy adjustment targets the "involution" phenomenon in the pesticide industry, particularly affecting resource-intensive and overproduced products like glyphosate and phosphoric acid pesticides [2][5]. - The cancellation of the 9% export tax rebate will increase the offshore costs of related products, as domestic glyphosate production has tripled since 2021, leading to a significant price drop and compressed profit margins [2][5]. - The adjustment encourages a transition towards formulation and high-end products, avoiding raw pesticide exports and promoting deep-processing products [2][5]. Group 2: Market Trends and Future Outlook - In 2024, China's pesticide formulation export value is projected to reach $8.999 billion, an 11% increase from the previous year, indicating a shift in overseas market demand from low-end raw materials to high-value formulations [2][5]. - The core competitiveness of formulation exports lies in overseas registration qualifications, formulation technology, and brand building, which are strengths of leading companies and set the stage for industry consolidation [2][5]. - The cancellation of tax rebates may lead to a surge in overseas orders in the short term, potentially causing a temporary price increase for glyphosate and related products, but the industry is expected to undergo significant restructuring in the medium to long term [3][8]. Group 3: Comparison with Solar Industry - Similar to the solar industry, where export tax rebates are being reduced to combat low-price competition, the pesticide industry is also expected to see a shift from cost-based competition to value-based competition [3][8]. - The solar industry, which holds over 90% of global production capacity, has faced issues of domestic companies selling products at unsustainable prices, leading to a need for industry consolidation and innovation [3][6].