纯碱期价持续回落，短期或仍将承压？

Core Viewpoint - The soda ash futures market has experienced a significant decline after a previous surge, primarily due to weakening supply-demand fundamentals, soft downstream demand, and rising inventory levels [1][15]. Supply Side Pressure - Recent soda ash production has shown a notable increase, reaching 775,300 tons for the week ending January 15, up from 753,600 tons the previous week, marking a 2.88% week-on-week growth [4][17]. - The capacity utilization rate has also improved, rising from 84.39% on January 9 to 86.82%, an increase of 2.43 percentage points [4][17]. - In East China, a major production area, soda ash output is projected to reach 1,779,500 tons in Q4 2025, reflecting a 1.89% increase from Q3, indicating ample regional supply [4][17]. Demand Side Weakness - The downstream glass industry has seen a decline in soda ash demand, with daily melting volume for float glass decreasing from 151,865 tons at the end of last year to 150,745 tons [6][19]. - The glass sector is facing significant supply-demand imbalances and rising cost pressures, leading to reduced procurement willingness for soda ash, with many companies adopting a just-in-time purchasing strategy [6][19]. - The supply-demand gap for dense soda ash has widened, with daily demand from float and photovoltaic glass at 47,600 tons, while daily production reached 58,800 tons, resulting in a surplus of 11,200 tons [6][19]. Inventory Levels - Inventory levels have reversed a previous downward trend, showing a clear accumulation. As of January 15, soda ash inventory stood at 1,575,000 tons, a slight increase from 1,572,700 tons on January 9 [9][22]. - The inventory of dense soda ash rose from 736,200 tons on January 9 to 738,000 tons [9][22]. - The number of available inventory days increased from 11.68 days on January 2 to 13.06 days on January 16, indicating growing inventory pressure [9][22]. Market Outlook - In the short term, the soda ash market is facing a "strong expectation versus weak reality" scenario, with supply expected to remain high and production anticipated to exceed 770,000 tons next week, maintaining an operating rate above 86% [12][25]. - Demand is constrained by the weak glass industry, with no significant improvement expected [12][25]. - The increase in inventory and decline in sales rates suggest that the weak fundamental landscape is unlikely to change soon. Current prices have fallen below 1,200 yuan per ton, with limited further downside expected [12][25].