【行业研究】钢铁行业2026年度信用风险展望（2025年12月）

Core Viewpoint - The steel industry in China is experiencing a stable credit quality, with overall credit risks expected to remain controllable in the future [1]. Group 1: Industry Fundamentals - Domestic demand momentum remains to be boosted, with macro policies supporting a moderate economic recovery [5][54]. - The steel industry is undergoing a transformation towards high-end and green development, driven by strict capacity restrictions and incentives for advanced production [9][58]. - The demand side shows a divergence with weak construction, strong manufacturing, and stable exports, while supply is contracting under policy adjustments [12][61]. Group 2: Economic and Policy Environment - The macroeconomic environment is characterized by coordinated policy efforts, maintaining a moderately loose monetary policy and enhancing fiscal support [7][56]. - Future macro policies will focus on achieving annual growth targets, expanding domestic demand, and stabilizing growth [8][57]. - The steel industry policies emphasize the elimination of outdated capacity and the encouragement of advanced production, promoting high-quality development [9][58]. Group 3: Industry Operations - The steel industry has achieved overall stable operations under multiple pressures, with a notable improvement in profitability due to declining raw material prices [12][61]. - In the first ten months of 2025, the revenue of the black metal smelting and rolling industry reached 64,127.8 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 3.9%, while total profits reached 1,053.2 billion yuan, indicating a recovery [12][61]. - The crude steel production in China for January to November 2025 was 892 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of approximately 4% [13][62]. Group 4: Financial Status - The financial condition of the steel industry shows signs of marginal profit recovery, but high debt levels and weak debt repayment capabilities remain significant issues [29][78]. - The average operating profit margin and total asset return rate are at low levels, with capital expenditures shrinking year by year [32][78]. - The overall debt burden in the steel industry remains heavy, with high leverage ratios and insufficient cash flow coverage for short-term debts [36][38]. Group 5: Bond Market Performance - The bond market for the steel industry showed stable issuance in 2025, with active bond issuance primarily from high-credit-rated state-owned enterprises [41][42]. - A total of 156 bonds were issued, amounting to 1,701.90 billion yuan, with a significant concentration among top enterprises [42][45]. - The upcoming bond maturity peak is concentrated between 2026 and 2028, with manageable repayment risks due to the predominance of high-credit-rated issuers [47][48]. Group 6: Outlook - In the short term, supply-side adjustments and policy impacts are expected to support a reduction in production, while demand from real estate remains weak [48][51]. - The overall recovery of domestic demand is still weak, and steel prices are likely to remain under pressure [48][51]. - Long-term trends indicate a shift towards high-end manufacturing and green energy, with less competitive, high-debt capacities being phased out [51].