Jefferies Cuts Roblox Price Target Ahead of Fourth-Quarter Results

Core Viewpoint - Jefferies has lowered the price target for Roblox to $85 from $100 while maintaining a Hold rating ahead of the company's fourth-quarter earnings release [1] Group 1: Earnings Outlook - Investor sentiment is cautious leading into the earnings results, with a focus on the fiscal 2026 bookings outlook as a potential reset point for expectations [2] - There are concerns that the guidance for fiscal 2026 may be lower than the anticipated 20% year-over-year bookings growth, or that no full-year guidance may be issued [2] Group 2: User Trends and Risks - User trends have remained stable month over month since November, which reduces near-term risk for the fourth quarter and first quarter [3] - However, uncertainty in the second half of the year, due to challenging year-over-year comparisons, is likely to continue impacting the stock negatively [3] Group 3: Stock Performance and Valuation - Roblox shares have decreased by 38% since the third-quarter 2025 earnings, despite the company achieving its strongest results in history [4] - Concerns regarding slower bookings growth for 2026 compared to the long-term target of over 20% and potential EBITDA margin compression have led to a contraction in valuation, dropping from 45x to 30x forward EBITDA [4] Group 4: Price Target Justification - Jefferies' revised price target of $85 is based on a 30x multiple applied to fiscal 2026 EBITDA of $1.93 billion, indicating that investor positioning appears skewed to the downside as they prepare for conservative guidance [5] - Fiscal 2026 is viewed as a clearing event for expectations [5]