每经热评｜黄金牛市背后 藏着美元霸权松动的必然逻辑

Group 1: Gold Market Dynamics - The price of gold reached a record high of $4639.72 per ounce on January 14, 2026, with a cumulative increase of 7.33% in early 2026 and a staggering 64.56% increase in 2025, making it one of the highest-yielding asset classes [1] - The rise in gold prices is closely linked to the depreciation of the US dollar, which fell by 9.41% in 2025, including a nearly 12% decline against the euro, indicating a market divergence between gold and the dollar [1] - Historical data shows that periods of significant gold price increases often coincide with turmoil in the dollar's value, such as the breakdown of the Bretton Woods system and ongoing US fiscal deficits [1] Group 2: Federal Reserve and Economic Implications - The Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell is under criminal investigation, marking the first time a sitting Fed chair has faced such scrutiny, which reflects escalating pressure from President Trump on monetary policy [2] - If the Fed loses its independence, it could lead to uncontrollable inflation and a loss of confidence in the dollar, with the current inflation rate at 2.7% as of December 2025, exceeding the target of 2% [2] - The potential loss of the Fed's independence poses risks not only to the US economy but also to the global financial system, as central banks may adjust their reserve asset structures, leading to reduced dollar liquidity and increased volatility in exchange rates [3] Group 3: Global Financial System and Alternatives - The reliance on the dollar as the primary international currency presents systemic risks, prompting calls for actions to reduce dependency, such as increasing gold reserves and developing alternative settlement systems [4] - Proposed measures include expanding currency swap agreements and promoting a decentralized and diversified global financial system to mitigate the impact of issues arising from the Federal Reserve [4]