印尼取消B50政策叠加油价下跌 棕榈油继续回落

Group 1 - The cancellation of Indonesia's B50 biodiesel policy is expected to negatively impact palm oil prices, leading to a decline in Malaysian palm oil for three consecutive trading days [1] - The Indonesian government will continue with the B40 biodiesel blending policy and is preparing for a potential B50 implementation later in the year, but current market conditions favor maintaining the B40 ratio [1][2] - The market sentiment is currently bearish due to the cancellation of the B50 plan, but there is an expectation of marginal improvement in the short-term supply-demand fundamentals, particularly from major consuming countries like India [1][3] Group 2 - The palm oil export volume from Malaysia increased by 17.53% in the first half of January compared to the same period last month, indicating improved demand from major consumers [2] - The overall market is experiencing volatility, with expectations that Indian consumption and potential adjustments in U.S. biodiesel policies may support demand for oils [3] - MBSB Research forecasts a moderate growth of 1.0% in palm oil production for 2026, with exports expected to remain low at 15.1 million tons and ending stocks at a high of 3.18 million tons due to ongoing weak demand [3]