Xin Lang Cai Jing·2026-01-15 15:17Group 1: Core Insights - The refrigerant industry is experiencing strong growth, with leading manufacturers expected to see their profits double by 2025 [2] - Sanmei Co., Ltd. forecasts a net profit of 1.99 billion to 2.15 billion yuan for 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 155.66% to 176.11% [2] - Yonghe Co., Ltd. anticipates a net profit of 530 million to 630 million yuan for 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 110.87% to 150.66% [2] Group 2: Quarterly Performance - Sanmei's Q4 net profit is estimated to be between 399 million and 559 million yuan, slightly lower than the second and third quarters [2] - Yonghe's Q4 net profit is projected to be between 61 million and 161 million yuan, also lower than its performance in the previous two quarters [2] Group 3: Market Dynamics - Both companies attribute their profit growth to a significant increase in the prices of core refrigerant products [2] - The production quotas for second-generation refrigerants (HCFCs) are being further reduced in 2025, while third-generation refrigerants (HFCs) will continue to be managed under production quotas, leading to an improved competitive landscape [2] Group 4: Price Trends - Data from Longzhong Information indicates that while R22 prices have declined due to weak demand, R32 and R1234a prices continue to reach new highs, significantly outperforming the same period in 2024 [3] - The refrigerant industry remains strong, with the performance of refrigerant manufacturers significantly better than upstream hydrofluoric acid producers and raw material suppliers [3] Group 5: Future Outlook - In 2026, leading refrigerant manufacturers are expected to benefit from structural optimization on the supply side, with a total quota of 802,000 tons for third-generation refrigerants, an increase of 3,050 tons from 2025 [3] - The market for third-generation refrigerants is highly concentrated, with the top six companies controlling over 90% of the market share [3] - According to CITIC Securities, the ongoing tightening of supply for third-generation refrigerants, coupled with demand from new energy vehicles, air conditioning, and foreign trade, is likely to sustain the industry's upward trend [3]