今年“三九”不冷是不是错觉？国家气候中心回应

Core Viewpoint - The winter of 2025-2026 has experienced higher than average temperatures across most of China, with the national average temperature recorded at -2.1°C, which is 1.5°C higher than the historical average, marking the second highest since 1961 [1][3]. Temperature Distribution - Most regions in China, except for parts of northern Northeast China, northeastern Inner Mongolia, and western Yunnan, have temperatures close to or above the historical average. Hubei and Hunan provinces recorded the highest temperatures since 1961, while Shandong, Shaanxi, Shanxi, Jiangxi, and Henan provinces recorded the second highest [3]. Causes of Higher Temperatures - The higher temperatures are attributed to a weak polar vortex and a lack of blocking high pressure in the Ural Mountains, leading to a weaker East Asian winter monsoon. This results in a reduced intensity of cold air affecting China, with its path shifting north and east [3][4]. - Additionally, the weakened subtropical high in the western Pacific and the Indian-Myanmar trough have led to less tropical moisture being transported to China, contributing to lower precipitation in southern regions [3][4]. Relation to La Niña - The current winter's higher temperatures are linked to global warming trends rather than La Niña events, which historically have been associated with lower temperatures in China. Since 1961, the average winter temperature in China has increased at a rate of 0.4°C per decade [4]. Impacts of Higher Temperatures - Health impacts include increased activity of pathogens, potentially raising the risk of infectious diseases in spring. Fluctuating temperatures may exacerbate respiratory and cardiovascular issues, and allergy sufferers may experience earlier symptoms due to pollen release [5]. - In agriculture, higher temperatures benefit the overwintering of crops like winter wheat and rapeseed, but may also lead to early pest outbreaks and increased risk of spring droughts due to accelerated soil moisture evaporation [5].