PagSeguro Digital Ltd. (PAGS): A Bull Case Theory

Core Thesis - PagSeguro Digital Ltd. (PAGS) is viewed positively due to its strong historical growth, low valuation metrics, and potential upside from interest rate cuts, making it an attractive investment opportunity [1][2][3]. Financial Performance - PagSeguro has demonstrated impressive historical growth with a net income CAGR of 15% and revenue CAGR of 27% from 2018 to 2024 [2]. - The stock trades at a trailing P/E of 7.69 and a forward P/E of 6.98, indicating a significant margin of safety [1][2]. - The company maintains a robust cash position of approximately $1.8 billion, with a Basel Ratio of 30% and a return on average equity (ROAE) of around 14-15% [3]. Future Outlook - Management anticipates net income growth of 11-15% in 2025 and expects an EPS CAGR of over 16% and gross profit CAGR of over 10% through 2029 [3]. - A 1% decrease in Brazilian interest rates could potentially increase annual pre-tax profits by about $60 million, highlighting the sensitivity of profitability to interest rate changes [3]. Capital Returns - The company has been actively returning capital to shareholders through buybacks and dividends, with an expected total capital return yield of 16% in 2026 [3]. Competitive Landscape - PagSeguro faces competition from banks, fintechs, and Brazil's instant payment system, PIX, which may impact fee income and the demand for prepayment services [4]. - Despite a slight decline in market share in payment processing due to fee repricing, PagSeguro benefits from a broad service ecosystem and the strategic backing of UOL, which holds 85% of voting power [4]. Recent Performance - The stock has appreciated approximately 23.87% since a previous bullish thesis was published, indicating that the positive outlook remains valid [5].