Rosenblatt reiterates buy on Bullish even as IPO unlock looms

Core Viewpoint - Rosenblatt Securities maintains a buy rating on Bullish (NYSE: BLSH) but has reduced its price target from $55 to $52, attributing the stock's recent underperformance to an upcoming IPO lock-up expiration rather than underlying business fundamentals [1] Group 1: Stock Performance - The stock has lost its post-IPO premium and is currently trading at a slight discount compared to peers, with a year-to-date increase of 5% in 2026, which lags behind the 11% rise in bitcoin and over 20% gains in most crypto equities [2] - The impending IPO lock-up expiration on February 9, 2026, will introduce approximately 115 million shares into the market, significantly increasing the float from the current 40 million shares [1] Group 2: Business Fundamentals - The institutional-only trading model of Bullish helps mitigate extreme volatility associated with retail trading, as evidenced by a 22% month-over-month decline in trading volumes in December, compared to a 40% decrease for Coinbase [3] - The firm's adjusted EBITDA for 2025 has been revised down to $94.8 million from $106.0 million, with the new price target reflecting a 20x multiple on projected 2028 adjusted EBITDA [3] Group 3: Future Growth Drivers - The upcoming launch of Bullish in the US is expected to be a significant revenue driver, alongside anticipated crypto market structure legislation expected in the first half of 2026 [4]