Bitcoin Lost To Gold In 2025, But Dollar Liquidity Fixes That In 2026, Arthur Hayes Claims

Core Viewpoint - Bitcoin underperformed in 2025 while gold surged 120%, attributed to dollar liquidity dynamics and external geopolitical factors [1][2] Group 1: Bitcoin Performance - Bitcoin's performance is closely tied to dollar liquidity; it dropped when the money supply shrank and is expected to rise as liquidity returns [2][3] - The lack of advantages such as national priority on AI, which benefited tech stocks, contributed to Bitcoin's flat trading [3] Group 2: Gold Performance - Gold's price increase was driven by central banks selling U.S. treasuries following Russia's asset freeze and a flight to non-confiscatable reserves [2] - The U.S. trade deficit improvement was largely due to gold exports, indicating a potential for further price increases if central banks continue buying [6][7] Group 3: Future Dollar Liquidity - Three catalysts are expected to increase dollar liquidity in 2026: the Federal Reserve's new program adding at least $40 billion monthly, JPMorgan's $1.5 trillion loan program, and government-backed mortgage purchases [4][5] - Bank lending turned positive in Q4 2025 after a prolonged contraction, signaling a shift in liquidity conditions [5] Group 4: Investment Strategies - Investment in leveraged Bitcoin plays is being pursued, with companies like Strategy Inc. and Metaplanet Inc. seen as potential outperformers if Bitcoin prices rise [8] - The Maelstrom fund is nearly fully invested but is increasing risk exposure due to anticipated liquidity waves [9][10]