ZACKS·2026-01-15 17:11Core Insights - Charles Schwab (SCHW) is expected to report fourth-quarter and 2025 results on January 21, with anticipated year-over-year increases in earnings and revenues [1][9] - The company has a strong earnings surprise history, surpassing the Zacks Consensus Estimate in the last four quarters with an average beat of 6.6% [2] Earnings Expectations - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for fourth-quarter earnings is $1.34 per share, indicating a 32.7% rise from the previous year [16] - The consensus estimate for quarterly sales is $6.24 billion, suggesting a 17.2% increase from the prior-year quarter [17] Revenue Drivers - Trading revenues are projected to rise, with the Zacks Consensus Estimate set at $1.03 billion, reflecting a 17.6% increase year-over-year [4] - Net interest revenues (NIR) are expected to reach $3.13 billion, marking a 23.7% increase from the previous year [6] - Asset management and administration fees are estimated at $1.70 billion, indicating a year-over-year growth of 12.5% due to strong equity market performance [7] Market Conditions - Client activity and market volatility were solid in the fourth quarter, influenced by factors such as the longest U.S. government shutdown, a dip in consumer sentiment, easing monetary policy, and a dominant AI theme [3] - The average interest-earning assets for the quarter are estimated at $434 billion, reflecting a year-over-year rise of 1.9% [4] Expense Outlook - Operating expenses are expected to remain elevated due to regulatory spending, strategic acquisitions, and efforts to enhance business efficiency [8] - Management anticipates expenses for 2025 to rise by approximately 5.25% or slightly higher [10] Strategic Developments - In November, Schwab announced an agreement to acquire Forge Global Holdings, Inc. for $660 million, expected to close in the first half of 2026 [11] - This acquisition aligns with Schwab's strategy to enhance private market capabilities for retail and advisor clients [13]