政治不确定性扰动 日元汇率疲态难改

Core Viewpoint - The Japanese yen is under significant pressure against major currencies, reaching new lows due to political uncertainties and economic structural issues, with market concerns about potential fiscal risks in Japan [1][2]. Group 1: Currency Performance - The yen has depreciated approximately 16% against the Chinese yuan, falling from 100 yen to about 4.3 yuan since April last year [1]. - The yen has also weakened against the US dollar and euro, recently dropping to a new low since July 2024, nearing the critical psychological level of 160 yen per dollar [1][2]. - The yen's decline is attributed to multiple factors, including the widening interest rate differential between Japan and the US, and political instability [2]. Group 2: Political and Economic Factors - Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida's intention to dissolve the House of Representatives and call for early elections has heightened market volatility and concerns about fiscal sustainability [2]. - The recent rise in Japan's 10-year government bond yield to 2.16%, the highest since February 1999, reflects market reactions to political developments [2]. - Analysts express concerns that Kishida's support for fiscal expansion exacerbates fears regarding Japan's fiscal sustainability, increasing depreciation pressure on the yen [2]. Group 3: Structural Economic Issues - Japan's long-term currency weakness is linked to structural issues in its current account, with a shift to trade deficits and limited inflows from tourism [3]. - The outflow of funds for research and digital subscriptions due to insufficient innovation in Japan has contributed to the currency's depreciation [3]. - The current account surplus is primarily driven by overseas investment income, with limited capital returning to Japan, indicating long-term depreciation pressure on the yen [3]. Group 4: Central Bank Actions and Inflation - The yen's depreciation poses a dual challenge for the Bank of Japan, enhancing export competitiveness while increasing import costs and inflationary pressures [4][5]. - The Japanese government is closely monitoring the yen's decline, with potential intervention if the currency approaches levels that warrant action [5]. - The Bank of Japan's commitment to continue raising interest rates in response to inflationary pressures suggests a possible increase in rates one to two times this year [6].