2025年成为第三热年 2026年会更热吗？

Core Insights - The year 2025 is confirmed to be one of the hottest years on record, continuing the trend of rising global temperatures [1][2] - The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) and the Copernicus Climate Change Service report indicate that human activities are the primary drivers of increasing greenhouse gas concentrations, leading to long-term temperature rises [2][3] Temperature Trends - The global average surface temperature in 2025 is projected to be 1.44 degrees Celsius higher than the pre-industrial average (1850-1900) [2] - The past 11 years have been the hottest on record, with the last three years being the warmest, averaging 1.48 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels [2] - The three-year average temperature from 2023 to 2025 is expected to exceed 1.5 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels [2] Factors Contributing to Warming - The persistent accumulation of greenhouse gases and weakened natural carbon sinks are major contributors to the abnormal warming observed in recent years [2][4] - Ocean surface temperatures have reached unprecedented levels, exacerbated by phenomena such as El Niño and other oceanic changes [2][4] Extreme Weather Events - The increase in global temperatures is directly linked to a higher probability and intensity of heatwaves, stronger rainfall, and increased risks of flooding, droughts, and wildfires [4] - In 2025, half of the land areas experienced more days of extreme heat (32 degrees Celsius and above) than the historical average [4] - The year also saw a surge in extreme weather events, including record heatwaves and severe storms across Europe, Asia, and North America [4] Future Projections - Experts predict that 2026 may also be a warm year, potentially ranking among the top five hottest years on record, influenced by the evolution of El Niño and La Niña phenomena [5] - The long-term warming trend is expected to continue, with significant implications for climate risks faced by future generations [6]