Core Insights - The automotive market in 2026 is characterized by significant differentiation among major car manufacturers, with a total sales target exceeding 21.55 million units, approximately 63% of the 2025 domestic sales volume [1] - Traditional automakers are targeting a steady growth rate of 10% to 30%, focusing on new energy vehicles and international expansion, while new entrants and cross-industry brands are setting aggressive targets of 34% to 67.5% to capture market share [1] Summary by Category Traditional Automakers - Major traditional automakers have set sales targets concentrated around 3 million units, with Geely aiming for 3.45 million units in 2026, a 14% increase from 2025, and a new energy vehicle target of 2.22 million units, achieving a penetration rate of 64.3% [2] - Chery Group has set a target of 3.2 million units, also a 14.03% increase, with plans to launch 17 key models focusing on electrification and intelligence [2] - Dongfeng Group is more aggressive, raising its target from 2.5 million to 3.25 million units, a 30% increase, with a focus on 1.7 million new energy vehicles and 600,000 exports [2] - Great Wall Motors has set a more cautious target of 1.8 million units, reflecting a 36% increase from 2025 [2] New Entrants and Cross-Industry Brands - New entrants like Leap Motor are setting high growth targets, with a goal of 1 million units in 2026, representing a 67.5% increase from 2025's 596,600 units [3] - Xiaomi aims for 550,000 units, a 34% increase, with plans to launch multiple new models to enhance its product matrix [3] - NIO has set a target range of 456,000 to 489,000 units, maintaining a stable growth rate of 40% to 50% [3] Joint Venture Brands - Joint venture brands are generally more conservative, with GAC Toyota setting a target of 800,000 units, a mere 3.6% increase from 2025 [4] - SAIC Volkswagen aims for 1 million units, maintaining its 2025 target, while overall, SAIC Volkswagen targets 1.2 million units through the introduction of seven new energy vehicles [4] Factors Supporting Target Achievement - The differentiation in growth targets reflects a shift from incremental expansion to competition within existing market shares, with the difficulty of achieving these targets closely tied to company fundamentals, product strategies, and operational capabilities [5] - New energy vehicle sales growth targets are significantly higher than overall targets, indicating a consensus that new energy vehicles are becoming the main growth driver in the market [5] - The ability to meet sales targets is influenced by three key dimensions: the rollout of new energy products, success in overseas markets, and the overall capability of the organization [6][7]
2026年销量目标现分化：传统车企稳健推进 新势力冲刺高增长
Zhong Guo Zheng Quan Bao·2026-01-15 22:47