油价暴跌超4%，不打，只是因为以担心准备不足打的不够狠？

Core Viewpoint - Oil prices have dropped significantly, with a decline of over 4% as geopolitical tensions ease, particularly regarding Iran, leading to a reduction in market fears and a retreat of prices from recent highs [4][19]. Market Dynamics - WTI crude oil futures closed down by $2.83, a decrease of 4.56%, at $59.19 per barrel; Brent crude oil futures fell by $2.76, down 4.15%, to $63.76 per barrel; INE crude oil futures decreased by 2.34% to 441.80 yuan [6][21]. - The U.S. dollar index rose by 0.17% to 99.35, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average increased by 0.6% to 49,442.44 [21]. Geopolitical Factors - President Trump has postponed military action against Iran, which has alleviated market tensions and contributed to the drop in oil prices. This decision was influenced by reports of reduced violence in Iran and a lack of immediate plans for large-scale executions [4][19]. - Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu has requested Trump to delay military action to allow Israel more time to prepare for potential retaliation, indicating that geopolitical risks in the region remain unresolved [4][23]. Supply and Demand Outlook - High-frequency data indicates increasing pressure from oversupply in the oil market, suggesting that without geopolitical drivers, oil prices may struggle to maintain strength. If the situation in Iran continues to stabilize, market focus may shift back to oversupply concerns [5][20]. - The combined oil export volume from Venezuela, Iran, and the Black Sea region is projected to reach 4.6 million barrels per day by 2025, accounting for approximately 4.5% of global supply, which is a significant factor for traders [11][26]. Regional Developments - India's imports of Russian oil are reportedly stabilizing or declining due to U.S. pressure, leading to more Russian oil remaining at sea. This follows a significant drop in imports to a three-year low, down about one-third from peak levels [9][24]. - The geopolitical situation in the Middle East, particularly concerning Iran, remains the most significant threat, especially regarding potential disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, which handles nearly 20% of global oil and gas transport [11][26].