【沥青日报】地缘风险回落沥青较油抗跌，海上浮舱数据累积有减缓迹象

Market Performance - The BU 2603 main contract opened lower and maintained low-level fluctuations, closing at 3167, down 0.03% from the previous day, with a 7-day cumulative increase of 0.7% [2][32] - The next month contract 2606 remained flat compared to the previous day's closing price, while the far-month contract showed higher resilience than the near-month [2][32] Spot Market - The price of heavy asphalt in Shandong was 3100 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous period, with a 7-day cumulative change of 0.0%. The Shandong basis was -67 yuan/ton, with a 7-day cumulative increase of 7 yuan/ton [2][32] - In East China, the heavy asphalt market price was 3200 yuan/ton, also unchanged, with a basis of +33 yuan/ton, reflecting a 7-day cumulative increase of 7 yuan/ton [2][32] Crack Spread Changes - The BU-Brent spread recorded -120 yuan/ton, with a 7-day cumulative increase of 57 yuan/ton. The BU main contract closed at 0.0%, while Brent fell by 1.7% [2][32] - Geopolitical risks related to Iran have decreased, leading to a significant drop in oil prices, which are gradually retracting previous geopolitical premiums. The uncertainty in geopolitics continues to pose risks to oil prices, while asphalt shows relative resilience during oil price declines [2][32] Fundamental Changes - According to Longzhong's spot price statistics, the low-end price of heavy asphalt in East China has stabilized at 3150 yuan/ton for five consecutive trading days, with the high-end price at 3230 yuan/ton, remaining unchanged [3][32] - U.S. traders are reportedly assisting Venezuela in floating storage sales, with recent AIS data indicating several ships have departed from Jose Port towards U.S. ports. The floating storage has decreased from 72,640 barrels on January 13 to 69,580 barrels on January 15, indicating no immediate supply risk for domestic refiners [3][33] Short-term Outlook - The near-month contract will continue to focus on geopolitical risks [5][32] - The strategy is to maintain a range-bound approach, with a focus on buying near-month contracts on dips and selling far-month contracts. The structure is to maintain a spread between the 3rd and 6th month contracts, while observing the crack spread [6][32]