Morningstar Sees More Excitement For Fixed Income ETFs in 2026

Core Insights - Fixed income ETFs had a record-breaking year in 2025, with inflows rising 45% to $437 billion from $300 billion in 2024, driven by macroeconomic uncertainties and falling interest rates [3][2] - Morningstar predicts that fixed income ETFs will continue to gain market share, potentially reaching 33% of the bond fund market by the end of 2026, as they have been gaining an average of 2% market share per year since November 2015 [4][5] - The demand for short-term bond ETFs is expected to increase as they offer competitive yields compared to traditional money market accounts, appealing to investors seeking better returns on cash [6][7] Market Trends - In 2025, nearly 150 new fixed income ETF products were launched, indicating a growing interest in active management within the fixed income space [2] - Broad-based fixed income ETFs, such as the iShares Core U.S. Aggregate Bond ETF (AGG) and the Vanguard Total Bond Market ETF (BND), attracted significant inflows, with $177 billion reported [8] - Active ETFs are gaining traction, with funds like the Eaton Vance Total Return Bond ETF (EVTR), JPMorgan Income ETF (JPIE), and PIMCO Multisector Bond Active ETF (PYLD) being highlighted for their potential to outperform traditional indices [9] Future Outlook - The fixed income ETF market is expected to remain dynamic in 2026, with continued investor interest in both broad-based and actively managed funds [10] - The current low-interest-rate environment from banks is likely to drive more investors towards short-term bond ETFs as a means of earning higher yields [7]