You Don’t Own Enough Emerging Markets

Core Viewpoint - Emerging markets (EMs) have underperformed compared to U.S. stocks over the past decade, but recent trends suggest a potential turnaround with significant future returns expected for EMs [1][6][16] Performance Comparison - The S&P 500 has increased by 83% over the past 5 years, while the Vanguard Emerging Markets ETF (VWO) has only risen by 6.8%, indicating a stark contrast in performance [1] - Historically, from 1990 to around 2013, EMs and the S&P 500 produced similar returns, but since then, U.S. stocks have significantly outperformed EMs due to factors like a strong dollar and quantitative easing [3][5] Future Outlook - Analysts at Goldman Sachs project that U.S. stocks will return an average of 6.5% over the next decade, while emerging markets are expected to return 10.9%, suggesting a strong potential for EMs to catch up [7] - The recent performance of the Vanguard EM ETF, which is up 40% in the past year, indicates a possible beginning of a longer-term trend of EM outperformance [6] Investment Opportunities - The average P/E ratio for the Vanguard EM ETF is 16, which is about half that of the S&P 500, making EMs relatively cheap [8] - The dividend yield on VWO is 2.67%, significantly higher than the S&P 500's 1% yield, presenting an attractive income opportunity for investors [8] Specific Investment Recommendations - For broad exposure to EMs, the Vanguard EM ETF (VWO) is recommended, although it is heavily weighted towards China [9] - The Cambria Emerging Shareholder Yield ETF (EYLD) is suggested for those seeking high-yield EM stocks, focusing on dividend and buyback yields [11] - Brazilian stocks are highlighted as particularly attractive due to low valuations and high dividend yields, with the iShares Brazil ETF (EWZ) trading at a P/E ratio of 11 and a trailing dividend yield over 5% [12][15] Sector Insights - Brazil is noted as a natural resource powerhouse, with potential for strong returns if commodity prices rise, making it a strategic focus for investment [13] - Individual stocks such as Petrobras, Vale, and Nubank are mentioned as favorable investments within the Brazilian market, with varying performance since coverage began [14]