松果出行闯关港股“共享电单车第一股”胜算几何？

Core Viewpoint - Songguo Travel, a shared electric bike company, has submitted its IPO application to the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, aiming to become the first publicly listed company in the shared electric bike sector in Hong Kong. The company has carved out a niche in the competitive market by focusing on the underserved county-level markets in China, but it faces significant challenges in terms of policy, market competition, operational compliance, and business growth [1][3][11]. Market Position and Strategy - As of September 2025, Songguo Travel has deployed over 450,000 shared electric bikes across 422 cities and counties in China, capturing an 18.7% market share in the county-level market, ranking first [1]. - Despite its success in county markets, Songguo Travel holds only a 6.6% share of the overall market, ranking fourth among competitors, with the top three companies holding market shares of 23.7%, 22.0%, and 21.7% respectively [3]. - The company plans to expand its operations into higher-tier cities starting in 2024, which will expose it to fierce competition from established players like Hello, Meituan, and Didi Qingju [3][4]. Operational Challenges - In higher-tier cities, Songguo Travel's bikes are less visible and have lower usage rates compared to competitors, leading to a decline in order volume despite an increase in bike deployment [4]. - The company faces significant barriers to entry in these markets, including strict regulations and total quantity controls imposed by local governments [4][6]. Regulatory Environment - The shared electric bike sector operates under a challenging regulatory framework, with national guidelines discouraging the development of internet-based electric bike rentals. Many cities have outright bans or strict limitations on deployment [6]. - Songguo Travel's business model relies on operating in a "grey area" of local policies, with many of its deployed bikes lacking proper government approval [6][7]. Financial Performance - The company has shown signs of revenue stagnation, with total revenues of 953 million yuan and 963 million yuan for 2023 and 2024 respectively, and a slight decline in daily order volume from approximately 1.1 million to 1.01 million [10]. - Despite a slight profit of 26.4 million yuan in the first three quarters of 2025, the company acknowledges that maintaining profitability in the short term may be challenging [10]. - The company's valuation has decreased from a peak of 1.382 billion USD in 2021 to 996 million USD in 2025, reflecting a nearly 30% drop [10]. Competitive Landscape - Songguo Travel's unique value proposition lies in its localized operations in county markets, but it lacks the ecosystem synergies that larger competitors possess, which can leverage shared services to enhance user engagement [11]. - The upcoming IPO is seen as a critical step for the company to secure capital and address competitive pressures, but it faces numerous challenges from regulatory scrutiny and market competition [11].