松果出行闯关港股“共享电单车第一股” 胜算几何？

Core Viewpoint - Songguo Travel, a shared electric bike company, has submitted its IPO application to the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, aiming to become the first publicly listed company in the shared electric bike sector in Hong Kong. The company has carved out a niche in the overlooked county market, but faces significant challenges in policy, competition, compliance, and growth as it seeks to expand into higher-tier cities [1][2][4]. Group 1: Market Position and Strategy - Songguo Travel has successfully penetrated the county market, holding an 18.7% market share in this segment, but its overall market share remains low at 6.6%, ranking fourth in the industry [1][2]. - The company plans to shift its focus to higher-tier cities starting in 2024, where it will face intense competition from established players like Hello, Meituan, and Didi Qingju [2][3]. - Despite increasing the number of bikes deployed, the company has experienced a decline in total order volume, attributed to its strategic pivot to higher-tier cities [3][4]. Group 2: Regulatory Environment and Compliance Issues - The shared electric bike sector is subject to stringent regulatory scrutiny, with national guidelines discouraging the development of internet-based electric bike rentals. Many cities have outright bans or strict limitations on operations [4][5]. - Songguo Travel operates in a "grey area," with many of its 422 operational cities lacking formal agreements with local governments. The company has acknowledged that it has not secured necessary approvals in several locations [4][5]. - Reports of non-compliance, such as unregistered bikes and unauthorized deployments, have emerged, raising concerns about the company's operational legitimacy [4][6]. Group 3: Financial Performance and Growth Challenges - The company has shown signs of stagnation, with revenues of 9.53 billion yuan and 9.63 billion yuan for 2023 and 2024, respectively, indicating minimal growth. The first three quarters of 2025 saw revenues of 7.46 billion yuan [7]. - Despite an increase in the number of cities, bikes, and registered users, the daily order volume has decreased from approximately 1.1 million at the end of 2023 to about 1.01 million by September 2025 [7]. - The company's valuation has dropped significantly from 1.382 billion USD in 2021 to 996 million USD in 2025, reflecting a nearly 30% decrease amid a challenging market environment [7][8]. Group 4: Competitive Landscape and Market Perception - Analysts note that while Songguo Travel has unique value as a standalone player, it lacks the ecosystem advantages of larger competitors, which can leverage shared bikes as part of broader service offerings [8]. - The upcoming IPO is seen as a critical step for the company to secure capital and address competitive pressures, but it faces numerous challenges, including regulatory hurdles and market saturation [8].