光大期货：1月16日能源化工日报

Oil Market - Oil prices saw a significant decline, with WTI February contract closing down by $2.83 to $59.19 per barrel, a drop of 4.56% [2][17] - Brent March contract closed down by $2.76 to $63.76 per barrel, a decrease of 4.15% [2][17] - The easing of tensions in Iran led to a reduction in geopolitical risk premium, contributing to the largest single-day drop in oil prices since October [2][17] - The U.S. announced new sanctions against Iran, which are expected to have a lasting impact, although the likelihood of escalating conflict in the short term has decreased [2][17] Fuel Oil - The main contract for fuel oil (FU2603) rose by 1.33% to 2586 yuan/ton, while low-sulfur fuel oil (LU2603) fell by 0.48% to 3087 yuan/ton [3][18] - Singapore's onshore fuel oil inventory increased by 65,000 barrels (0.26%) to 25.473 million barrels, while Fujairah's inventory rose by 114,200 barrels (12.83%) to 10.041 million barrels [3][18] - The low-sulfur fuel oil market remains stable, while the high-sulfur market shows some support due to recovering demand [3][18] Asphalt - The main asphalt contract (BU2602) increased by 1.38% to 3168 yuan/ton [5][19] - Domestic asphalt shipments rose by 1.0% to 317,000 tons, and the capacity utilization rate for modified asphalt increased by 0.1% to 6.8% [5][19] - The asphalt market is expected to experience a balance between weak demand and strong cost expectations, with prices likely to stabilize [5][19] Rubber - The main rubber contract (RU2605) fell by 165 yuan/ton to 15,995 yuan/ton, with similar declines in other rubber products [6][20] - Despite a rebound in prices due to macroeconomic expectations, the low production season is expected to limit price elasticity [6][20] PX, PTA, and MEG - TA605 closed at 5048 yuan/ton, down 1.33%, while EG2605 closed at 3817 yuan/ton, down 1.29% [7][21] - The PX futures contract closed at 7130 yuan/ton, down 1.82%, with spot prices at $881/ton [7][21] - Polyester demand is expected to decline due to maintenance shutdowns and the upcoming Chinese New Year holiday [7][21] Methanol - Methanol prices in Taicang were at 2240 yuan/ton, with CFR China prices ranging from $265 to $269/ton [8][22] - The market is expected to maintain a bottom range due to declining port inventory pressures, although geopolitical tensions may increase volatility [8][22] Polyolefins - Mainstream prices for polypropylene (PP) in East China ranged from 6430 to 6550 yuan/ton, with various production margins reported [9][24] - HDPE film prices increased by 136 yuan/ton to 7550 yuan/ton, while LDPE film prices rose by 457 yuan/ton to 9024 yuan/ton [9][24] - Supply is expected to decrease slightly due to temporary maintenance, while demand is anticipated to recover before the Chinese New Year [9][24] PVC - PVC prices showed mixed trends across regions, with prices for different grades ranging from 4630 to 4900 yuan/ton [10][25] - Overall supply remains high, but domestic demand is slowing, leading to a bearish outlook for prices [10][25] Urea - Urea futures prices remained stable, with the main contract closing at 1801 yuan/ton, a rise of 0.28% [11][26] - Market prices in Shandong and Henan increased to 1760 yuan/ton, with a slight rise in daily production [11][26] - Demand is expected to be supported by winter storage and pre-spring planting needs, although high prices may suppress purchasing sentiment [11][26] Soda Ash - Soda ash futures prices fell by 2.05% to 1193 yuan/ton, with stable manufacturer quotes [12][27] - The industry’s operating rate increased by 2.43%, indicating a recovery in supply levels [12][27] Glass - Glass futures prices experienced a slight decline, closing at 1086 yuan/ton, down 0.55% [13][28] - The market remains cautious with limited demand support, and inventory levels are decreasing [13][28]