政坛巨震叠加央行议息：日元跌破159后，162“干预红线”再成焦点

Core Viewpoint - The Japanese yen is experiencing significant volatility due to rising uncertainty surrounding early elections and an upcoming Bank of Japan meeting, with traders on high alert for potential currency fluctuations [1][4]. Group 1: Currency Movements and Market Reactions - The yen fell to an 18-month low against the dollar earlier this week, driven by expectations that Prime Minister Fumio Kishida will call for elections to solidify his position and increase government spending [1]. - The yen briefly dropped to 159.45 and was around 158.65 on Friday morning, with the 160 level being a psychological threshold that the market is closely monitoring [4]. - The recent depreciation of the yen has raised concerns about potential market intervention by the Japanese government to support the currency, with officials focusing more on the magnitude and speed of fluctuations rather than specific levels [1][4]. Group 2: Central Bank and Policy Implications - Investors are keenly awaiting signals regarding interest rate hikes from Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda in the upcoming policy decision [1]. - The last interest rate hike by the Bank of Japan in December did not provide lasting support for the yen, and officials are increasingly concerned about the yen's impact on inflation, which may influence future rate decisions [4]. - The lack of hawkish comments from the central bank during the last press conference led to a significant weakening of the yen, indicating the market's sensitivity to the Bank's communications [4]. Group 3: Hedge Fund Activities and Market Sentiment - Hedge funds are aggressively buying call options for USD/JPY, betting on a depreciation of the yen to around 165, which they believe would trigger substantial market intervention by Japanese authorities [4][5]. - There is a sustained demand for investment in the high-end structure of USD/JPY, with notable direct option buying and leveraged trading strategies being deployed [5]. - Data from the Depository Trust & Clearing Corporation (DTCC) shows that the volume of call options traded was more than double that of put options, reflecting strong bullish sentiment towards USD/JPY [6].