中金公司：预计2026年上半年金融总量增速可能继续放缓

Core Viewpoint - The report from China International Capital Corporation (CICC) indicates a continued slowdown in social financing growth by December 2025, with a divergence in financing between households and enterprises, reflecting policy support for corporate financing [1] Group 1: Financing Trends - Social financing growth is expected to continue to slow down, with a notable divergence between household and corporate financing [1] - Corporate financing is showing signs of policy support, while household financing is lagging [1] Group 2: Monetary Indicators - M2 growth is rising primarily due to adjustments in the bank's liability structure, potentially linked to interest rate cuts rather than asset expansion [1] - M1 growth is anticipated to decline as expected, with further decreases likely [1] Group 3: Inflation and Real Interest Rates - Recent inflation has rebounded, but high actual interest rates have not significantly decreased as a result [1] - A substantial decline in actual interest rates is contingent upon improvements in household employment and income conditions [1] Group 4: Future Outlook - For 2026, the financial aggregate growth is projected to continue slowing in the first half of the year [1]