报告：2025年上海甲级办公楼市场需求逐季递增，2026年供应压力有望边际缓解

Core Insights - The Shanghai office market is expected to navigate through a cyclical downturn, with 2026 being a pivotal year for transitioning between old and new growth drivers [1] Group 1: Market Demand and Supply - The demand for Grade A office space in Shanghai is gradually recovering, with a year-on-year net absorption increase of 76.6% in 2025, driven by increased corporate relocations and expansions [1] - The total net absorption for 2025 reached 218,800 square meters, indicating a narrowing decline of 11 percentage points compared to 2024, suggesting that the demand contraction is nearing its end [2] - The overall market liquidity is showing a mild recovery, with a 55% quarter-on-quarter increase in new supply in Q4 2025, while net absorption grew by 9.3% quarter-on-quarter [1] Group 2: Rental Trends - Rental rates in the central business district (CBD) decreased by 2.8% quarter-on-quarter and 12.1% year-on-year, averaging 6.4 yuan per square meter per day, while non-CBD rents fell by 2.7% quarter-on-quarter and 11.0% year-on-year, averaging 4.2 yuan per square meter per day [1] - The rental market remains favorable for tenants, with landlords maintaining flexible negotiation terms [1] Group 3: Sector-Specific Demand - The TMT sector has surpassed the financial sector, accounting for 20% of the demand, with significant contributions from gaming, e-commerce, and AI companies [2] - The financial sector holds a 19% share, with insurance, funds, and investment banks being the primary demand drivers [2] - Emerging consumer goods sectors, including outdoor and pet products, are also expanding, contributing to a 13% share of the market [2] Group 4: Future Outlook - The supply pressure is expected to ease marginally, with a planned total supply of approximately 3.7 million square meters over the next 3-5 years, continuing the trend of decreasing new supply [3] - The introduction of commercial real estate public REITs is anticipated to provide crucial liquidity support to the market [3] - The year 2026 is projected to be significant for the application of AI technology, which is expected to drive investment and job growth, aiding in inventory reduction [3]