Xin Lang Cai Jing·2026-01-16 01:19Group 1: Copper Market - The main copper futures in Shanghai retreated to 103,000 yuan per ton, while London copper fluctuated around 13,155 USD [4][17] - The U.S. initial jobless claims fell to 198,000, significantly below market expectations, indicating a slowdown in the job market, but the Federal Reserve maintains a hawkish stance, leading to a cooling market sentiment [5][17] - The increase in copper warehouse receipts on the Shanghai Futures Exchange by 13,000 tons to 163,000 tons, while LME copper inventories decreased by 500 tons to 141,100 tons [5][17] - The State Grid expects investments during the 14th Five-Year Plan to reach 4 trillion yuan, a 40% increase compared to the previous plan [5][17] - Overall, macro sentiment adjustments and the postponement of key overseas mineral tariff investigations may exert pressure on recent prices, but pre-holiday stocking demand and raw material tightness may limit the downside for copper prices [5][17] Group 2: Nickel and Stainless Steel - Indonesia's Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources announced an adjustment of nickel ore RKAB quotas to 250-260 million tons by 2026, which is expected to provide short-term support for nickel prices [6][18] - The nickel market lacks further supply-demand contradictions, and the tightening quota expectations have already been priced in [6][18] - The current strategy for nickel and stainless steel is to remain on the sidelines, with Shanghai nickel futures expected to trade between 140,000 and 160,000 yuan per ton [6][19] Group 3: Aluminum Market - The price of alumina has slightly declined, maintaining a downward trend in spot prices, with the 05 contract showing increased short positions [20] - The overall supply of alumina is excessive, with production slightly rebounding to around 96 million tons [20] - The market anticipates a continued decline in spot prices due to lower production costs and reduced concerns about large-scale production cuts in the alumina industry [20] - The 05 contract for alumina is expected to trade between 2,500 and 2,800 yuan per ton, with a recommendation to hold short positions [20][21] Group 4: Zinc Market - Zinc prices showed a slight upward trend, with the U.S. initial jobless claims decreasing and the New York manufacturing index returning to expansion territory [23] - Domestic TC prices are stabilizing at low levels, while overseas prices are also declining, leading to a slight recovery in the import supply [23] - The strategy for zinc is to remain observant, with the main contract expected to trade between 24,500 and 25,500 yuan per ton [23] Group 5: Lead Market - Lead prices showed a slight upward trend, with supply-side pressures easing due to adjustments in primary smelter maintenance plans [24] - The recycling of waste batteries is expected to decline, but the willingness of recyclers to maintain prices is increasing [24] - The strategy for lead is to operate within a range, with the main contract expected to trade between 17,000 and 18,000 yuan per ton [24] Group 6: Precious Metals - Precious metals experienced slight fluctuations, with gold, silver, and palladium showing minor pullbacks, while platinum saw slight gains [26] - The U.S. has temporarily refrained from imposing tariffs on key minerals, which has led to some profit-taking pressure in the market [26] - The overall market remains uncertain, with ongoing geopolitical tensions supporting safe-haven demand for precious metals [26]