长安期货范磊：战争锚点不定，油价可关注中长期动向

Financial Attributes - The US December CPI increased by 2.7% year-on-year, remaining unchanged from November, while the core CPI rose by 2.6%, also consistent with the previous month. Both figures fell below market expectations, leading to a resurgence in interest rate cut expectations for April, although January's expectations remain low [3][12] - The market consensus indicates that no rate cut is expected in January, with April's cut supported by the CPI data decline. There is a divergence in expectations for rate cuts in April and June, with a potential focus on June if April cuts occur [3][12] Political Attributes - Tensions between the US and Venezuela are easing, with the market absorbing the impact of the US capturing Maduro. Despite Maduro's resistance, the export of oil products to the US is likely to continue, and further US control over Venezuela's oil industry may occur [4][13] - The US-Iran relationship is under scrutiny due to internal political unrest in Iran, with potential military actions from the US causing oil prices to rise. However, recent statements from Trump and Israel suggest a pause in military actions, leading to a price correction. Iran's significance in the oil market is highlighted, with potential for greater price volatility depending on geopolitical developments [4][13] Fundamental Attributes - OPEC and EIA reports indicate that OPEC+ production in December was 78.3 thousand barrels per day below planned levels, with actual production at 37.44 million barrels per day against a target of 38.22 million barrels per day. OPEC member production was 23.17 million barrels per day, 6.1% below quota levels, indicating a preparation for the January production cuts [6][15] - Despite OPEC+ production cuts, non-OPEC countries like the US, Brazil, and Canada maintain high production levels, which may not fully offset the supply surplus in the market. OPEC maintains its consumption growth forecast for this year while raising expectations for next year, indicating optimism about long-term fuel consumption driven by global economic recovery [6][15] - EIA's report slightly raised oil price expectations due to technical adjustments rather than a shift in market outlook, suggesting that production surplus and inventory accumulation remain detrimental to price recovery. The IEA's upcoming report is expected to align with EIA's view on weak demand [6][15] Overall Market Outlook - Recent oil price volatility is attributed to geopolitical uncertainties, with supply-side looseness and weak demand recovery contributing to ongoing price pressure. The market anticipates rate cuts in April or June, with macroeconomic pressures likely to persist unless US tariff policies change [10][19] - The US-Iran relationship is a critical factor influencing oil prices, with potential military actions leading to rapid price increases, while negotiations could reduce geopolitical risk premiums. Overall, geopolitical factors will continue to play a significant role in oil price trends, with supply-side pressures likely to keep prices subdued unless unexpected developments occur [10][19]