Delta(US:DAL) 智通财经网·2026-01-15 10:28Core Viewpoint - Goldman Sachs commented on Delta Air Lines' Q4 earnings, noting that while the results exceeded expectations, the 2026 EPS guidance midpoint fell short of market consensus and investor expectations. Goldman maintains a "Buy" rating with a target price indicating a 15% upside potential [1]. Revenue Environment - Management indicated strong booking trends at the start of FY2026, with cash sales in the first week of January showing double-digit year-over-year growth. Demand across all geographic regions is accelerating, and RASM is expected to improve quarter-over-quarter in Q1 2026 [2]. Corporate Revenue - Corporate revenue grew by 8% in Q4 2025, with expectations for accelerated growth in FY2026. The improvement in corporate demand is broad-based and not solely due to significant changes in Delta's market share. Current bookings reflect both price and volume increases, unlike the previous year which was primarily price-driven [3]. Free Cash Flow Outlook - Free cash flow for FY2026 is projected to be between $3 billion and $4 billion, aligning with Delta's long-term target of $3 billion to $5 billion, but down from $4.6 billion in FY2025. Factors contributing to this decline include a projected $1.2 billion increase in capital expenditures and the transition to partial taxpayer status [4]. Fleet Planning - Delta announced an agreement with Boeing to purchase 30 787-10 wide-body aircraft, with an option for an additional 30. Deliveries are set to begin in 2031, and these new aircraft are expected to enhance profit margins by 10 percentage points due to increased premium seating, a 25% improvement in fuel efficiency, and enhanced cargo capacity [5]. Capital Allocation - Management anticipates reducing total leverage to 2.0 times by the end of 2026, moving towards a long-term target of 1.0 times. While debt repayment remains a priority, management will continue to evaluate shareholder return options, including potential increases in dividends or share buybacks, as they approach their long-term leverage goal [7]. MRO Business - Delta plans to disclose unit cost metrics for its MRO business, which is expected to see significant revenue growth in the coming years, with profit margins projected to rise from high single digits in 2025 to mid-teens. MRO revenue is expected to grow by over 20% year-over-year in 2026 [8]. Outlook and Valuation - Goldman Sachs raised its Q1 2026 EPS forecast from $0.65 to $0.68, while adjusting FY2026 EPS expectations from $6.60 to $7.00, and FY2027 from $7.45 to $8.50. The 12-month target price was increased from $77 to $80, with the EV/EBITDAR multiple raised from 4.8x to 5.0x [9].