You can bet on anything in Trump’s America. Insiders are cashing in

Core Insights - The article discusses a significant event involving a trader on the cryptocurrency betting site Polymarket who made a substantial profit from betting on the capture of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro, raising questions about insider trading in prediction markets [1][2][5]. Group 1: Prediction Markets Overview - Prediction markets have gained popularity, with trading volumes on Polymarket and Kalshi exceeding $30 billion in 2025 [10]. - Polymarket achieved a valuation of $9 billion in its latest funding round, while Kalshi reached an $11 billion valuation late last year [10]. - These markets allow users to buy and sell contracts that pay out based on the occurrence of specific events, operating more like financial markets than traditional gambling [11]. Group 2: Insider Trading Allegations - There are claims of insider trading within prediction markets, with a notable trader on Kalshi asserting that there is "100% insider trading" occurring [6]. - An anonymous user on Polymarket, known as AlphaRacoon, reportedly made nearly $1 million from various bets, including predicting the most searched person on Google in 2025 [6][7]. - The recent success of the Maduro bet has prompted US politicians to call for a crackdown on suspected insider bets, with proposed legislation to ban government officials from participating in these markets [8].