智通财经网·2026-01-16 01:41Core Viewpoint - The report from China Merchants Securities forecasts that China's export growth will maintain around 5% by 2026, despite challenges, supported by various factors [1] Group 1: Export Growth Factors - December export growth continues to rebound, with overall export performance significantly better than imports, driven by a more favorable trade environment following the US-China summit in October [1] - The transition of export structure from traditional labor-intensive products to high-value products like integrated circuits, automobiles, and ships is evident, with strong growth in new products compensating for the decline in traditional exports [2] - China's diversification strategy in foreign trade is effective, with strong export performance to the EU and ASEAN, offsetting the significant decline in exports to the US [1][3] Group 2: Export Product Structure - Integrated circuit exports surged over 40% in December, maintaining a growth rate above 20% for nine consecutive months, aided by the easing of semiconductor trade restrictions [2] - Automobile exports saw a substantial increase of approximately 71% in December, driven by competitive advantages in electric vehicles and preemptive shipping to Europe before potential tariffs [2] - Shipbuilding exports continue to grow rapidly, with a 16.2% increase for the year, supported by global fleet renewal and China's production capacity [2] - Traditional labor-intensive product exports remain weak, with textiles, clothing, and other categories experiencing continued low demand [2] Group 3: Export Destination Performance - Exports to the US continued to decline, with a 30% drop in December, marking the ninth consecutive month of double-digit decreases, reflecting cautious purchasing behavior amid inventory adjustments [3] - Exports to Europe maintained growth above 10%, driven by seasonal demand and preemptive actions by importers ahead of new carbon regulations [3] - ASEAN remains China's largest trading partner, with exports to the region showing consistent growth, while exports to Africa have also been robust, maintaining double-digit growth since March 2025 [3] Group 4: Import Trends - Imports have shown positive growth for seven consecutive months, characterized by increased volumes of major commodities like iron ore and crude oil, despite falling prices [4] - Soybean imports continued to grow slightly, contributing to overall import stability, alongside active imports of high-tech intermediate goods driven by domestic industry upgrades [4] - Domestic demand policies aimed at stabilizing growth and expanding consumption have also led to a rebound in imports of consumer goods and production materials [4]