PTA：高估值且下游计划进一步减产 PTA短期承压

Supply and Demand - As of January 15, PTA operating rate is at 76.9%, down by 1.3% due to the restart of 3 million tons of production in Dushan and the shutdown of 3.6 million tons of new material facilities [3] - The overall polyester operating rate has decreased to 89.9%, down by 0.9%, with specific adjustments in terminal operating rates: texturing at 70% (down by 2%), weaving at 55% (down by 1%), and dyeing at 70% (up by 1%) [3] - There is a mixed sentiment in the market regarding raw material procurement, with some customers planning to stock up before the New Year while others intend to halt production after depleting their raw materials [3] Profitability - As of January 15, PTA spot processing fee is around 390 RMB/ton, while the processing fees for TA2603 and TA2605 are 356 RMB/ton and 340 RMB/ton respectively [2] Market Outlook - This week, PTA facilities are experiencing both restarts and maintenance, leading to a decrease in overall operating rates; downstream polyester is expected to reduce production due to seasonal factors around the Spring Festival [4] - Major polyester manufacturers have decided to initiate a continuous production cut of 15% starting January 14, which is expected to impact market dynamics [4] - The supply-demand outlook for PTA is gradually weakening, with limited inventory accumulation expected in January but significant pressure anticipated in February [4]