钢材：钢材淡季供需双弱 价格维持震荡走势

Group 1: Market Overview - Rebar prices are weakening while hot-rolled coil prices are slightly stronger, with a price difference of 160 yuan per ton between rebar and hot-rolled coil [1] - Tangshan steel billet remains stable at 3040 yuan, with Shanghai rebar at 3130 yuan per ton and hot-rolled coil at 3290 yuan per ton [1] Group 2: Costs and Profits - Coking coal prices are rising, and iron ore continues a strong trend, providing some support for steel prices despite a seasonal demand slump [1] - Current profit margins from high to low are steel billet > rebar > hot-rolled coil [1] Group 3: Supply Dynamics - Steel production is increasing slightly as mills resume operations, but iron output has decreased, indicating a potential seasonal reduction in production [1] - Weekly iron output decreased by 1.5% to 2.28 million tons, with total production of five major materials increasing by 0.62% to 8.192 million tons [1] Group 4: Demand Trends - Seasonal demand is declining, but there was a slight recovery in demand this week, with total demand for five major materials increasing by 29.3% to 8.26 million tons [1] - Rebar demand decreased significantly, while hot-rolled coil demand remained at a slightly higher level [1] Group 5: Inventory Levels - Rebar inventory has shown fluctuations, while hot-rolled coil inventory continues to decrease [2] - Total inventory for five major materials decreased by 6.9% to 12.47 million tons, with rebar inventory at 4.38 million tons and hot-rolled coil inventory at 3.624 million tons [2] Group 6: Industry Outlook - Steel production increases are minimal, and while demand has improved slightly, the market remains within a seasonal framework of weak supply and demand [3] - December steel exports remain high, influenced by some export rush, and steel prices are expected to follow raw material fluctuations [3] - Price ranges for rebar and hot-rolled coil are projected at 3050-3250 yuan and 3200-3350 yuan respectively [3]