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Group 1: Currency Trends - The Australian dollar (AUD) has shown narrow fluctuations, reaching a high of 0.68 against the USD on January 7, 2025, before stabilizing between 0.6680 and 0.6706 as of January 14, driven by policy divergence between Australia and the US, economic resilience, and commodity support [1] - The AUD is expected to experience a "first dip then rise" trend in 2025, influenced by international risk events and monetary policy, with fluctuations anticipated in the first quarter due to a stronger USD and heightened risk aversion [1] - In the second quarter, the AUD faced pressure from Trump's "reciprocal tariffs," dropping below 0.60 before stabilizing above 0.64, while the second half of the year is projected to see recovery supported by Fed rate cut expectations and commodity stabilization [1] Group 2: Economic Indicators - Australia's GDP growth is projected to be 1.4%, 2%, and 2.1% year-on-year for the first three quarters of 2025, with private demand recovering to offset a slowdown in public demand [1] - The unemployment rate has remained low at 4.3% for five consecutive months, providing a foundation for economic stability [1] Group 3: Inflation and Monetary Policy - Inflation has become a focal point, with the overall CPI rising to 3.2% year-on-year in Q3 2025 and further increasing to 3.8% in October, exceeding the Reserve Bank of Australia's target range of 2%-3%, which has weakened previous rate cut expectations [2] - The RBA maintained the benchmark interest rate at 3.6% for three consecutive meetings, with indications that rates may remain unchanged or increase in 2026, providing a stable foundation for the AUD [2] - The divergence in monetary policy between the RBA and the Federal Reserve has been a key driver of AUD volatility, with the Fed maintaining a hawkish stance and expectations of no immediate rate cuts [2] Group 4: Commodity Prices and Trade - The AUD's performance is closely linked to commodity prices, with significant fluctuations in Australia's export value influenced by gold and resource prices, which rebounded after hitting a low in August 2025 [3] - Predictions indicate that coal prices will rise by 5%-7% in 2026, supported by strong demand for iron ore from Chinese infrastructure projects, providing additional support for the AUD [3] - Australia's trade surplus reached AUD 7.31 billion in July, reflecting ongoing resilience in foreign trade and boosting market confidence in the AUD [3]