华泰期货：美国初请失业金人数降温 贵金属继续高位震荡

Economic Data - The number of initial jobless claims in the U.S. decreased by 9,000 to 198,000, significantly lower than the market expectation of 215,000, marking the lowest level since November of the previous year [2][14] - The four-week moving average fell to 205,000, the lowest in two years [2][14] Federal Reserve Insights - President Trump stated that he currently has no plans to dismiss Federal Reserve Chairman Powell, despite threats from the Justice Department regarding a criminal investigation [2][14] - Trump is considering former Fed Governor Kevin Walsh and National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett for the next Fed Chair position [2][14] Futures Market Overview - On January 15, 2026, the main gold futures contract opened at 1,041.00 CNY/gram and closed at 1,035.20 CNY/gram, a change of -0.52% from the previous trading day [3][15] - The main silver futures contract opened at 23,488.00 CNY/kilogram and closed at 22,665.00 CNY/kilogram, a change of -0.43% [3][15] Bond Market Monitoring - The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield closed at 4.169%, an increase of 0.043% from the previous trading day [4][16] - The yield spread between the 10-year and 2-year Treasury bonds was 0.609%, a decrease of 1.7 basis points from the previous day [4][16] Trading Volume and Positions - On January 15, 2026, the total trading volume for gold contracts was 392,878, a decrease of 2.23% from the previous day [5][17] - The total trading volume for silver contracts was 3,117,047, an increase of 14.39% from the previous day [5][17] ETF Holdings - Gold ETF holdings remained stable at 1,074.23 tons, while silver ETF holdings decreased by 79 tons to 16,242 tons [6][18] Market Strategy - For gold, a cautiously bullish outlook is suggested, with expected price fluctuations between 1,020 CNY/gram and 1,045 CNY/gram [9][21] - For silver, a cautiously bullish stance is also indicated, with anticipated price movements between 22,700 CNY/kilogram and 24,000 CNY/kilogram [10][22]