华泰期货：碳酸锂高位回调，供需两旺下市场宽幅震荡

Core Viewpoint - The lithium carbonate market is experiencing a price correction after reaching a two-year high, influenced by regulatory policies and a decrease in demand from downstream consumers [3][9]. Market Analysis - On January 15, 2026, the main contract for lithium carbonate opened at 163,840 CNY/ton and closed at 163,220 CNY/ton, reflecting a decrease of 1.31% from the previous settlement price. The trading volume was 431,256 contracts, with an open interest of 443,942 contracts [2][8]. - The current spot prices for battery-grade lithium carbonate are between 156,000 and 162,000 CNY/ton, down by 4,000 CNY/ton from the previous trading day. Industrial-grade lithium carbonate is priced between 152,000 and 159,000 CNY/ton, also down by 4,000 CNY/ton. The price of 6% lithium concentrate is 2,155 USD/ton, a decrease of 45 USD/ton from the previous day [2][8]. Inventory and Demand - Recent data from SMM indicates a decrease in lithium carbonate inventory, with a total of 109,942 tons, down by 263 tons week-on-week. Smelter inventory increased by 1,345 tons to 19,727 tons, while downstream inventory decreased by 888 tons to 35,652 tons [3][9]. - The shift from inventory accumulation to depletion suggests some support for demand from downstream consumers, indicating a balanced supply and demand situation in the short term [3][9]. Strategy and Outlook - There is significant divergence in market sentiment, with strong demand for energy storage from downstream sectors. However, the transmission of lithium carbonate prices to the battery cell sector remains weak, and prices are still at a two-year high, suggesting a potential for wide fluctuations and correction risks [4][10]. - Future attention should be focused on whether overall consumption can drive the transmission of value within the lithium carbonate supply chain [10].