华泰期货：铝价快速上涨抑制消费可能产生负反馈

Key Points - The core viewpoint of the articles revolves around the current state of aluminum and alumina prices, market trends, and inventory levels, indicating a bearish sentiment in the short term for aluminum and alumina markets [7][17]. Group 1: Aluminum Market Data - As of January 15, 2026, the A00 aluminum price in East China is reported at 24,190 CNY/ton, a decrease of 480 CNY/ton from the previous trading day [2][12]. - The main aluminum futures contract opened at 24,610 CNY/ton and closed at 24,375 CNY/ton, with a trading volume of 766,880 contracts [2][12]. - Domestic electrolytic aluminum social inventory stands at 736,000 tons, with a slight increase of 600 tons from the previous period [2][12]. Group 2: Alumina Market Data - On January 15, 2026, alumina prices in various regions are as follows: Shanxi at 2,625 CNY/ton, Shandong at 2,575 CNY/ton, and Guangxi at 2,735 CNY/ton [3][13]. - The main alumina futures contract opened at 2,804 CNY/ton and closed at 2,789 CNY/ton, reflecting a decrease of 6 CNY/ton [3][13]. Group 3: Aluminum Alloy Market Data - The procurement price for civilian aluminum is 17,600 CNY/ton, while the mechanical aluminum price is 17,900 CNY/ton, both showing a decrease of 400 CNY/ton from the previous day [4][14]. - The total theoretical cost for aluminum alloy production is 23,119 CNY/ton, with a theoretical profit of 481 CNY/ton [6][16]. Group 4: Market Analysis - The aluminum market is experiencing high volatility, which is beginning to suppress consumption, leading to potential short-term negative feedback on prices [7][17]. - The alumina market is seeing a slight decline in prices, with an oversupply situation persisting, indicating limited upward price support in the near term [7][17]. Group 5: Strategy - The current market strategy is neutral for aluminum, cautiously bearish for alumina, and neutral for aluminum alloys [8][18].