长江有色：美就业数据超预期美指反弹 16日镍价或下跌
Xin Lang Cai Jing·2026-01-16 02:35

Core Viewpoint - The nickel market is experiencing a downturn due to a combination of macroeconomic factors, weak demand from downstream industries, and a shift in supply expectations, leading to a potential short-term weak trading pattern for nickel prices [2][5]. Supply Side - The previous expectations of tightening Indonesian nickel ore quotas have weakened, reducing concerns about supply constraints [3]. - Both domestic and international visible inventories continue to accumulate, indicating that spot supply is not tight, which alleviates fears of resource shortages [3]. Demand Side - Overall demand for nickel from downstream sectors is weak, with stainless steel production hampered by high social inventories and a slow recovery in the real estate sector, leading steel mills to be cautious in raw material procurement [4]. - In the new energy sector, the production of ternary batteries has also seen a month-on-month decline, with first-quarter growth expectations falling [4]. - Both major demand drivers lack strong recovery momentum, making it difficult to support high prices [4]. Industry Chain Status - The nickel industry chain is facing a mismatch in supply and demand rhythms, with upstream nickel ore supply expectations shifting from tight to loose, while the midstream smelting capacity remains excessive [4]. - The recovery pace of demand in downstream stainless steel and new energy vehicles is relatively slow, leading to a concentration of industry chain profits towards the upstream resource end, while the mid and downstream processing and manufacturing sectors have weaker bargaining power [4]. Spot Trading and Price Forecast - The activity level in the spot market has decreased, with buyers showing a strong wait-and-see attitude, and some traders opting to accelerate sales to avoid price volatility risks [5]. - In summary, due to the dual impact of weakened supply contraction expectations and weak downstream demand, nickel prices are likely to maintain a short-term weak trading pattern [5].