华泰期货：政策再起波澜，昨日镍不锈钢强势上涨

Core Viewpoint - The recent increase in nickel prices is primarily driven by the tightening of nickel ore quotas in Indonesia, which has led to expectations of a global supply shortage [2][8]. Group 1: Market Analysis - On January 15, 2026, the main nickel futures contract opened at 143,000 CNY/ton and closed at 146,750 CNY/ton, reflecting a change of 4.08% from the previous trading day [2][8]. - The trading volume for the day was 1,738,133 contracts, an increase of 667,439 contracts, while the open interest decreased by 8,358 contracts to 101,617 [2][8]. - The price surge was influenced by the Indonesian Ministry of Energy's announcement of a 34% reduction in nickel ore quotas for 2026 compared to 2025, which is expected to tighten global nickel supply [2][8]. Group 2: Nickel Ore Market - The nickel ore market is currently stable, with the official benchmark price in Indonesia being raised, which supports market sentiment [3][9]. - The benchmark price for 1.6% grade nickel ore has been increased to 29.04 USD/wet ton, significantly higher than the previous half-month [9]. - The current trading atmosphere is relatively quiet, with market participants mainly executing prior orders rather than engaging in new transactions [9]. Group 3: Spot Market - The sales price of nickel from Jinchuan Group in Shanghai is 153,300 CNY/ton, up by 3,000 CNY/ton from the previous trading day [4][9]. - The trading of refined nickel in the spot market is generally moderate, with varying premiums for different brands [4][9]. - The previous day's warehouse receipts for nickel in Shanghai were 41,972 tons, while LME nickel inventory stood at 285,282 tons [4][9]. Group 4: Strategic Outlook - If Indonesia's quota policy is strictly enforced, it will gradually impact nickel ore supply and support prices; however, high short-term inventories and increased production of hydrometallurgical nickel may lead to a "volatile upward trend with repeated negotiations" in prices [5][10]. - The strategy suggests focusing on range trading, with opportunities to buy on dips [10].