Group 1 - The price of hydrogenated vegetable oil (HVO) is expected to remain strong in 2026, supported by stricter fuel blending policies in Europe and North America, and emerging demand in the Asia-Pacific region [1] - The European Union aims to reduce greenhouse gas emissions in the transportation sector by 14% by 2026, which will directly increase the blending ratio of HVO in diesel [2] - The removal of the "double counting" rule in countries like the Netherlands, Poland, and Italy is expected to double the demand for HVO in diesel, with Germany likely to follow suit [2] Group 2 - In 2025, the average import volume of renewable diesel in the U.S. dropped significantly to 5,000 barrels per day, down from 33,000 barrels per day in the same period of 2024, due to domestic tax incentives favoring local production [3] - The U.S. federal budget extended the 45Z tax credit for biofuels made from crops grown in the U.S., Canada, and Mexico, which has reduced the competitiveness of imported fuels [3] - The shift in U.S. policy has transformed the market from one that subsidized HVO exports to the EU to one that is dominated by domestic consumption, leading to a decrease in global HVO supply [4] Group 3 - In the Asia-Pacific region, countries like Australia are actively pursuing HVO initiatives, with an 11 billion AUD clean fuel plan aimed at low-carbon transitions in mining and aviation [4] - Emerging sectors such as heavy mining, aviation, and data centers are expected to drive global HVO demand growth in 2026 [4] - Some cruise companies are piloting 100% pure HVO fuel, although the higher costs compared to traditional fuels may limit widespread adoption [5] Group 4 - Analysts warn that increased competition in the raw material market due to new bio-refinery installations will put pressure on prices in 2026 [6] - The EU's sustainable aviation fuel policy and the U.S. domestic production incentives are expected to consume most of the market supply, leading to competition for resources in Asia and other emerging markets [6]
氢化植物油价格将保持坚挺
Zhong Guo Hua Gong Bao·2026-01-16 02:44