泰国石化业面临汇率关税双重夹击

Core Insights - The Thai petrochemical and plastics industry, which accounts for approximately 20% of the country's GDP, is facing significant challenges as economic growth is expected to slow from 2.2% in 2025 to 1.5% in 2026 [1] - The industry is under pressure from both currency appreciation and trade barriers, with the Thai baht expected to appreciate by 8.2% against the US dollar in 2025, reducing price competitiveness for USD-denominated exports by over 8% [1] - The imposition of a 19% tariff on Thai goods by the US, effective since August of last year, is anticipated to lead to a drastic decline in export growth from 12% in the second half of last year to just 0.6% in 2026 [1] - Demand-side structural weaknesses are evident, with manufacturing PMI remaining at 57.4 but external order growth slowing and domestic consumption under pressure, indicating reduced willingness to procure raw materials and potential impacts on operational rates [1] Industry Response Strategies - Companies need to reassess raw material procurement strategies, considering an increase in regional sourcing [2] - There is a shift towards enhancing production capacity for high-value specialty chemicals and bio-based materials as a transformation direction [2] - Expanding into ASEAN internal markets and emerging markets in the Middle East and Africa is deemed urgent [2] - The Thai central bank may further cut interest rates to stimulate the economy, but the industry requires targeted export tax rebates and support for industrial upgrades [2] - The adjustments will test the supply chain resilience and product innovation capabilities of the Thai petrochemical industry, with companies that can quickly adapt product structures and optimize cost control gaining competitive advantages [2]