元旦后玉米维持微涨走势 基层货源流转成远期关键变量

Core Viewpoint - After New Year's Day 2026, domestic corn prices continue a slight upward trend, with expectations of increased trading volume before the Spring Festival and a small price increase anticipated [15][26]. Group 1: Price Trends - As of January 13, 2026, the national average corn price is 2241.00 yuan/ton, up 6.16 yuan/ton from 2234.84 yuan/ton at the end of December 2025 [15][26]. - The price trend shows a narrow upward movement since December 2025, influenced by several conflicting factors [15][26]. Group 2: Farmer and Trader Dynamics - There is a conflict between farmers and traders, with farmers holding back on sales due to a reluctance to sell at low prices, while traders face rising procurement costs [5][17]. - The sales resistance from farmers and the increased costs for traders create a situation where low prices are hard to procure, and high prices are difficult to sell, leading to decreased trading enthusiasm [5][17]. Group 3: Downstream Demand and Inventory - Downstream enterprises are entering a pre-holiday stocking phase, but the demand boost is not significant due to rising costs and competition from imported substitutes like sorghum and barley [22][24]. - The logistics issues in the fourth quarter of 2025 have led to higher inventories for downstream enterprises, which may reduce the urgency for pre-holiday purchases [22][24]. Group 4: Market Inventory and Trading Activity - The stability of market prices is influenced by the inventory levels in the intermediate market; a relatively ample inventory can lead to stronger price competition [24][26]. - The trading activity in the intermediate market has increased due to rising prices and the need to alleviate financial pressure as the year-end approaches [26]. Group 5: Future Price Expectations - The overall trading volume is expected to increase before the Spring Festival, with prices anticipated to remain in the range of 2250-2260 yuan/ton, reflecting a slight increase of less than 1% from mid-January [26]. - Post-Spring Festival price trends will depend on the changes in farmer selling progress and the accumulation of inventory in the intermediate market [26].