加元高位震荡 政策与原油主导博弈格局

Core Viewpoint - The Canadian dollar (CAD) is experiencing high volatility influenced by divergent US-Canada policies, oil price fluctuations, and trade uncertainties, with the USD/CAD exchange rate at 1.3892 as of January 16, 2026, reflecting a slight increase of 0.0944% [1] Group 1: Economic and Monetary Policy - In 2025, the CAD's performance was affected by policy adjustments and trade tensions, with the Bank of Canada cutting interest rates by a total of 100 basis points to 2.25%, the lowest since July 2022 [1] - The Bank of Canada signaled a pause in rate cuts during the December meeting, leading to market expectations of no further rate cuts before March, which, along with a rebound in oil prices, helped stabilize the CAD [1] - The Canadian economy showed resilience in Q4 2025, with a surprising annualized GDP growth of 2.6% in Q3, reversing a contraction trend [1] Group 2: Employment and Trade Dynamics - The Canadian job market showed mixed signals, with 53,000 new jobs added in November 2025, but the unemployment rate rose to 6.8% in December, indicating a weak labor market that limits the CAD's attractiveness [2] - In trade, Canada experienced a shift from a surplus to a deficit in October 2025, with a trade deficit of 583 million CAD, driven by an 8.4% decline in energy product exports, while metal and non-metal mineral exports surged by 27.3% to a record high [2] - The trade surplus with the US narrowed from 8.4 billion CAD in September to 4.8 billion CAD, while exports to non-US countries increased by 15.6%, indicating a diversification in trade partners [2] Group 3: Oil Prices and Market Outlook - The CAD's performance is closely tied to oil prices, with WTI crude oil recently rising to around 60.70 USD per barrel due to OPEC+ production cuts and tensions in Iran, providing support for the CAD [3] - However, concerns over potential oversupply from the US resuming Venezuelan oil imports, estimated to add 30 to 50 million barrels, could pressure Canadian oil exports [3] - Short-term resistance for USD/CAD is noted between 1.3920-1.3950, with support at 1.3820-1.3850, while long-term factors to monitor include the pace of Fed rate cuts, oil supply dynamics, and the review progress of the US-Mexico-Canada Agreement [3]