避险资金持续流入！瑞士法郎开年震荡走强，后续怎么走？

Core Viewpoint - The Swiss Franc is experiencing stable fluctuations against major currencies due to policy stability and market dynamics, with a slight appreciation against the US dollar and stability against the euro, driven by its safe-haven status and global policy divergence [1][2]. Group 1: Currency Performance - As of January 16, 2026, the exchange rates for the Swiss Franc are 1.2450 USD, 1.07 EUR, and 8.67 CNY, with a recent decline against the USD reaching a low of 0.7970 [1]. - The Swiss Franc is expected to appreciate slightly against the Chinese Yuan, with a forecasted high of 8.76 CNY by January 18, 2026, but a long-term downtrend is anticipated [1]. Group 2: Central Bank Policy - The Swiss National Bank maintained a 0% policy interest rate in December 2025, indicating a commitment to market stability and avoiding negative interest rates due to potential adverse effects on pensions [2]. - The divergence in monetary policy between the US and Switzerland, with the Federal Reserve expected to lower rates while the Swiss National Bank holds steady, is compressing the USD/CHF spread [2]. Group 3: Economic Outlook - The Swiss economy is showing a mixed pattern of "weak exports and strong domestic demand," with GDP growth projected to slow from 1.2% in 2025 to 1.0% in 2026, and an increase in unemployment to 3.0% [3]. - Low interest rates are driving up housing prices, which is supporting domestic demand and partially offsetting the impact of weak exports [3]. Group 4: Market Predictions - Analysts predict that the Swiss Franc will maintain a strong but limited fluctuation range in 2026, with potential for intervention from the central bank if the Franc strengthens excessively [3]. - Exchange rate forecasts suggest the USD/CHF will fluctuate between 0.79 and 0.81, while the EUR/CHF is expected to remain stable, with potential declines depending on EU recovery and German infrastructure investments [3].